If you've checked in on the market in the last few months, you've probably noticed it doesn't feel quite like 2021 anymore — and it doesn't feel like the panic of 2023 either. We're somewhere in between, and honestly, that's a healthier place for both buyers and sellers to be. Here's an honest read on where things stand across Northeast Florida heading into the second half of 2026.
Home Prices: Still Climbing, Just Not Sprinting
St. Johns County's median home price sits at $485,000 right now, up 5.2% from a year ago. That's a meaningful gain, but it's a far cry from the double-digit annual jumps we saw a few years back — and that's a good thing. Steady appreciation is sustainable; the pace we saw in 2021 never was.
Break it down by community and the picture gets more specific. Nocatee is sitting at a $520,000 median, up 3.8% year over year — still strong, but the slower growth rate compared to the county overall tells me inventory there has loosened up just enough to take some of the pressure off list prices. Ponte Vedra is the outlier on the high end at $785,000 median, up 6.1%, which tracks with what I'm seeing on the ground: coastal and golf-adjacent inventory remains tight, and buyers in that price range are still willing to compete for the right property.
Inventory and Days on Market
Active listings across Northeast Florida currently sit around 4,820 — up from where we were a year ago, largely thanks to continued new construction in St. Johns County. More inventory generally means more negotiating room for buyers, and we are seeing that in a lot of transactions, just not uniformly. Well-priced, well-presented homes in good locations are still moving fast.
The average days on market across the region is 22 days, down 8% from last quarter. That might sound contradictory — more inventory, but faster sales — but it makes sense once you separate the data: the homes pulling that number down are the ones priced right out of the gate. The ones sitting longer are almost always overpriced for current conditions. I covered this in more detail in the Sellers Guide, but it's worth repeating here: pricing strategy matters more in a market like this than it did three years ago, when almost anything sold fast regardless of price.
Where Mortgage Rates Actually Stand
This is the question I get asked the most right now, and the honest answer is: rates have settled into a range that's higher than what a lot of buyers were hoping for, but more stable than the volatility we saw in 2023 and 2024. Conventional 30-year fixed rates are generally landing in the mid-to-high 6% range for well-qualified borrowers, with some variation based on credit score, down payment, and loan type. FHA and VA loans are often coming in a bit below that.
What does that actually mean in practice? On a $450,000 loan, the difference between a 6.5% rate and a 7% rate is roughly $150 a month — not nothing, but not a reason to sit out the market entirely if you're otherwise ready. A few things worth knowing:
- Rate locks matter more in this environment. If your lender offers a lock with a float-down option, ask about it — it can protect you if rates dip between contract and closing without locking you out of a better rate.
- Buying down your rate with points can make sense if you're planning to stay in the home for several years. Run the math with your lender on the break-even point before deciding.
- Adjustable-rate mortgages are back in some conversations, particularly for buyers who expect to refinance or move within five to seven years. It's not the right call for everyone, but it's worth at least discussing with your lender.
I'm not a mortgage broker, and rates shift week to week — so treat these as a general snapshot, not a quote. I can connect you with a few local lenders I trust if you want current numbers specific to your situation.
What This Means If You're Buying
You have more selection than buyers had two years ago, and a little more room to negotiate on homes that have been sitting. That said, anything well-priced in a desirable school zone or community is still moving quickly — Nocatee and the St. Johns County new-construction corridor in particular. If you've been waiting for rates to drop significantly before getting serious, it's worth talking through whether that wait is actually saving you money once you factor in the homes you might miss in the meantime. My Buyers Guide walks through the full process if you want the details.
What This Means If You're Selling
This is a market where pricing strategy is doing more of the work than it used to. Homes priced accurately for current conditions — not for what the neighbor's house sold for two years ago — are still selling in three weeks or less. Homes priced aspirationally are sitting, and sellers end up negotiating from a weaker position after 60-plus days on market than they would have if they'd priced correctly from day one. If you're thinking about listing, a current, honest valuation is the place to start — not a number from an online estimator that hasn't seen the inside of your house.
What I'm Watching Going Into the Second Half of 2026
A few things on my radar: whether new construction pace in St. Johns County continues at the current clip or slows, whether mortgage rates ease at all heading into fall, and how the upcoming hurricane season affects both insurance costs and buyer timing — both of which I covered in the Buyers Guide and Sellers Guide. I'll keep posting updates here as the picture develops.
If you want to talk through what any of this means for your specific situation — whether that's "is now a good time to buy" or "what would my house actually sell for right now" — I'd rather have that conversation directly than have you guess from a blog post. Reach out any time.